Casting Paul Van Riper as the enemy commander was a clever choice, because Van Riper had always believed that war was inherently unpredictable—that it was based on commanders making intuitive snap judgments.
Verbal overshadowing is an important concept because it shows how excessive rationality can undermine the overall power of the mind. In particular, he used old methods to evade his opponent's sophisticated electronic surveillance network. Van Riper used motorcycle messengers to transmit orders to front-line troops and World War II light signals to launch airplanes without radio communications. Currently unavailable. For example, Van Riper spent many years as a soldier perfecting his ability to be spontaneous under pressure. Improvisation seems incredibly difficult, since it apparently involves making up an entire skit on the spot. Van Riper used a fleet of small boats to determine the position of the opponent's fleet by the second day of the exercise. Spontaneity, on the other hand, can be rehearsed and trained for. Soon after the cruise missile offensive, another significant portion of the opposing navy was "sunk" by an armada of small Red boats, which carried out both conventional and suicide attacks that capitalized on Blue's inability to detect them as well as expected. However, Gladwell argues that sometimes, more evidence is bad: as we saw with the Millennium Challenge, excessive evidence can cloud the decision-making process and result in bad decisions. But in fact, Van Riper’s decision to do nothing reflects years of experience and careful consideration. Van Riper recognizes that by contacting his soldiers in the field, he might be interfering with their ability to resolve a problem. In a preemptive strike, he launched a massive salvo of cruise missiles that overwhelmed the Blue forces' electronic sensors and destroyed sixteen warships. Paul P. Van Riper (Author) › Visit Amazon's Paul P. Van Riper Page. The Blue Team believed that it was making the right decision, but in fact it was wasting valuable time on predictions that turned out to be inaccurate.
Furthermore, when people are asked to “talk through” their attempts to solve the brainteaser, they become less likely to solve it successfully. The customers who had dozens of jam options never reached a decision about which jam to buy: they just continued to weigh the evidence. Find all the books, read about the author, and more. Teach your students to analyze literature like LitCharts does.Detailed explanations, analysis, and citation info for every important quote on LitCharts.The original text plus a side-by-side modern translation of Van Riper maintained that conventional decision-making strategies—i.e., weighing all options carefully—were too slow for the military. As the war game began, the Blue Team, representing the U.S., sent the Red Team (led by
MC02 was meant to be a test of future military "transformation"—a transition toward new technologies that enable network-centric warfare and provide more effective command and control of current and future weaponry and tactics.
The Millennium Challenge is also a good illustration of how perfect information and careful considerations of the evidence aren’t always useful components of military strategy; there are times when perfect information can interfere with the decision-making process. Teachers and parents! ISBN-10: 0837187559. One might assume that the best medical diagnosis uses as much evidence as possible. Teachers and parents! By using our site, you acknowledge that you have read and understand our As the passage makes clear, the Cook County Hospital had a strategy for avoiding wrong diagnoses: 1) admitting too many people, and 2) asking lots and lots of questions.
There was a psychological study in which different psychologists were asked to consider the mental health of a war veteran named
LitCharts assigns a color and icon to each theme in Rapid Cognition, “Thin-slicing,” and the Adaptive Unconscious
They're like having in-class notes for every discussion!” An equivalent success in a real conflict would have resulted in the deaths of over 20,000 service personnel.
“Would not have made it through AP Literature without the printable PDFs. There was a famous experiment in which grocery store shoppers were offered six different kinds of jam, while other shoppers were offered many dozens of kinds.
He ran his squad of soldiers in a direct, concise, and confident manner.
He is currently the Chairman of the Board of Directors for the Marine Corps Heritage Foundation. Since his retirement, Van Riper has served on several advisory boards and panels. The Millennium Challenge has become notorious in the world of military strategy because it inadvertently predicted the war in Iraq: soldiers were being trained to fight a rogue Middle-Eastern dictator, not unlike Saddam Hussein. Another good example of the importance of snap judgments is the Cook County Hospital in Chicago—the hospital that inspired the TV show Van Riper’s greatest strength as a commander was his unpredictability—again and again, Van Riper was able to outwit Operation Net Assessment, perhaps suggesting the limitations of excessive rationality. The shoppers who were offered six different kinds of jam bought considerably more jam than those who were offered many more kinds—the reason why is that buying jam is a snap judgment, and the more choices people are offered, the less likely they are to reach a final decision. And yet, when the results came in, it was clear that Goldman’s method was the best. The Cook County Hospital experiment is important because it suggests that sometimes the more information doctors have, the This story is a great example of thin-slicing in action—without being consciously aware of what the danger
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