“Action without corresponding messaging, public or private, could most certainly lead to escalation because the other side is free to interpret the action as they wish.”Which means the initial tit-for-tat would serve as the precursor to much more bloodshed.Which means that the way the US and Iran interpret each other’s next moves would mainly come down to guesswork.Eric Brewer, who spent years in the intelligence community before joining Trump’s National Security Council to work on Iran, told me that’s when the Pentagon and other parts of the government rely heavily on their best-laid plans. Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper’s own hodgepodge of troops, ships and planes was similar in organization and capability to Iran’s actual forces. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard ran the war games on a replica in the the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the ocean. When Van Riper went to Kernan to complain, he was told: “You are playing out of character. The OPFOR would never have done what you did.” “The location of the sinking will likely create a serious headache for the Iranian Navy and IRGC-N,” he added, using the acronym for the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
He is the author of the graphic novels Russia would likely demand restraint as well, but use the opportunity to solidify its ties with the Islamic Republic.
And because the waterway is so shallow, the replica will likely impair shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In a 2002 war game, for example, commanders used Iran's large fleet of small speedboats to swarm U.S. forces with conventional and suicide attacks. In an interview with NPR's All Things Considered , Kenneth Pollack spoke about a recent war game he conducted regarding the United States and Iran… But the mock ship appeared to have capsized as it was being towed after the war games. That, among other things, could galvanize Iranian society against the US and put it firmly behind the regime, even though it has in many ways treated the population horribly over decades in power.But the options facing the president at that point will be extremely problematic, experts say.
In 1994, for example, Iranian-linked terrorists bombed the hub of the Jewish community in Argentina’s capital, That remains the largest terrorist attack in Latin America’s history, and the possibility for an even bigger one exists. But now it really has sunk. “We could see a conflict that spread quickly to places the US may not be able to protect people, and it’s a fight that we are grossly unprepared for,” he said, adding that there’s a strong Hezbollah presence in the region and American embassy security there isn’t great. That and other interference by exercise planners made Van Riper “furious,” Zenko wrote.Not only had the white cell’s instructions compromised the integrity of the entire process, but also his own chief of staff — a retired Army colonel — was receiving conflicting orders about how his force should be deployed. The exercise was designed to test the future of the US military against a Middle Eastern opponent – either Iran or Iraq – and ended in defeat for Washington. If Tehran destroyed an oil tanker, killing people and causing an oil spill, the US might destroy some of Iran’s ships. China depends heavily on its goods traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, so it would probably call for calm and for Tehran not to close down the waterway.
It has small mountain ranges along some of its borders. The shock compelled exercise planners to rig the rest of the war game for U.S. forces. Entering from the Afghanistan side in the east would mean traversing two deserts. After all, Iran bombed US Marine barracks in Lebanon in 1983 and, according to the Pentagon, Iranian-backed fighters killed more than 600 US troops during the Iraq War… It had 13,500 participants, numerous live and simulated training sites, and was supposed to pit an Iran-like Middle Eastern country against the U.S. military, which would be fielding advanced technology it didn't plan to implement until five years later.The war game would begin with a forced-entry exercise that included the 82nd Airborne and the 1st Marine Division. And the nation’s Should US troops try to enter Iranian territory on land, Iranian ground forces would also push back on them fiercely using insurgent-like tactics while the US painfully marches toward Tehran.Put together, Brewer notes succinctly, a US-Iran war would be “a nasty, brutal fight.” Imagine, as we already have, that the earlier stages of strife escalate to a major war. “There may be instances now where they already have some persistent access.
The military exercises were named “Prophet Mohammed 14th” and included the replica being encircled by speed boats and hit by missiles. Those who survived the conflict will mainly live in a state of economic devastation for years and some, perhaps, will pick up arms and form insurgent groups to fight the invading US force.Second, power abhors a vacuum. August 5, 2020 by admin 0 Comments. If Iran actually were to deploy Van Riper’s brutally effective tactics, it just might inflict even more damage than Van Riper’s own hamstrung forces did in their simulated, and rigged, war. News & Politics. Others might believe that it was merely for defensive reasons, with Iran essentially trying to protect its missile arsenal from being taken out by future US strikes.Without a clear answer, which interpretation wins out comes down to which camp in the Trump administration is the most persuasive.
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